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Sileks vs Akademija Pandev — First League 2019

Sileks
Sileks
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
4/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Sileks51%
×Draw26%
Akademija Pandev23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sileks
1.52
Akademija Pandev
0.94

Sileks creates 62% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sileks
1.61
Akademija Pandev
0.95

allows per match

Sileks
0.92
Akademija Pandev
1.42

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par
Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Akademija Pandev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sileks or draw
77%
Sileks or Akademija Pandev
74%
Draw or Akademija Pandev
49%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+
26%
Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals
78%
Sileks 2+ goals
45%
Sileks 3+ goals
20%
Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
61%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
24%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)
68%
Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Akademija Pandev away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akademija Pandev attack 0.95 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sileks scores more
51%
level
26%
Akademija Pandev scores more
23%

Sileks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sileks vs Akademija Pandev

Sileks beat Akademija Pandev 4-0 in First League on April 17, 2026.