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Akademija Pandev vs Sileks — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sileks
Sileks
11/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Akademija Pandev41%
×Draw27%
Sileks32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.32
Sileks
1.15

Akademija Pandev creates 15% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 91 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Sileks
1.24

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Sileks
1.20

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Sileks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
68%
Akademija Pandev or Sileks
73%
Draw or Sileks
59%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
18%
Sileks wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
73%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
38%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
15%
Sileks 1+ goals
68%
Sileks 2+ goals
32%
Sileks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
56%
Sileks (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sileks attack 1.24 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
41%
level
27%
Sileks scores more
32%

Akademija Pandev at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Sileks

Sileks beat Akademija Pandev 1-0 in First League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.