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Šilas vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
4/30/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Prienų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas56%
×Draw22%
Kauno Žalgiris II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
2.01
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20

Šilas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 77 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
78%
Šilas or Kauno Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
44%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
33%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
87%
Šilas 2+ goals
59%
Šilas 3+ goals
32%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
70%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
34%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
71%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Šilas scores more
56%
level
22%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
22%

Šilas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šilas vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Šilas beat Kauno Žalgiris II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Prienų stadionas in Prienai.