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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
1 – 4
Šilas
Šilas
10/24/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26SM Tauras Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II33%
×Draw23%
Šilas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
Šilas
1.74

Šilas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 41 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
57%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Šilas
77%
Draw or Šilas
67%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
16%
Šilas wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
78%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
44%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
19%
Šilas 1+ goals
82%
Šilas 2+ goals
52%
Šilas 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
43%
Šilas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Šilas attack 1.63 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
33%
level
23%
Šilas scores more
43%

Šilas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris II 1–4 Šilas

Šilas beat Kauno Žalgiris II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at SM Tauras Stadionas in Kaunas.