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Šilas vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
FT
2 – 3
Jonava
Jonava
8/14/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Kazlų Rūdos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas45%
×Draw24%
Jonava31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.66
Jonava
1.33

Šilas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 74 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
Jonava
1.43

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
69%
Šilas or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
55%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
23%
Jonava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
81%
Šilas 2+ goals
49%
Šilas 3+ goals
23%
Jonava 1+ goals
74%
Jonava 2+ goals
38%
Jonava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
59%
Jonava (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Jonava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.66

Jonava attack 1.32 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Šilas scores more
45%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
31%

Šilas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Šilas 2–3 Jonava

Jonava beat Šilas 3-2 in 1 Lyga on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Kazlų Rūdos stadionas in Kazlų Rūda.