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Jonava vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
3 – 2
Šilas
Šilas
4/16/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Jonava43%
×Draw23%
Šilas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.75
Šilas
1.52

Jonava creates 15% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 41 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.82
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Jonava
1.41
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
66%
Jonava or Šilas
77%
Draw or Šilas
57%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
23%
Šilas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
83%
Jonava 2+ goals
52%
Jonava 3+ goals
25%
Šilas 1+ goals
78%
Šilas 2+ goals
45%
Šilas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
56%
Šilas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

Šilas attack 1.63 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jonava scores more
43%
level
23%
Šilas scores more
34%

Jonava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jonava 3 – 2 Šilas

Jonava beat Šilas 3-2 in 1 Lyga on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Jonava.