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Šilas vs Babrungas — 1 Lyga 2026

Šilas
Šilas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Babrungas
Babrungas
4/23/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Prienų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Šilas40%
×Draw24%
Babrungas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilas
1.61
Babrungas
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

Šilas
1.89
Babrungas
1.67

allows per match

Šilas
1.34
Babrungas
1.34

finishing

Šilas+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilas ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Šilas or draw
64%
Šilas or Babrungas
76%
Draw or Babrungas
60%

Winning margin

Šilas wins by 2+
20%
Babrungas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Šilas 1+ goals
80%
Šilas 2+ goals
48%
Šilas 3+ goals
22%
Babrungas 1+ goals
78%
Babrungas 2+ goals
44%
Babrungas 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Šilas (draw refunded)
53%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilas at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilas attack 1.89 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Šilas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Šilas scores more
40%
level
24%
Babrungas scores more
36%

Šilas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Šilas 0–3 Babrungas

Babrungas beat Šilas 3-0 in 1 Lyga on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Prienų stadionas in Prienai.