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Babrungas vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
1 – 2
Šilas
Šilas
9/18/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 22Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Babrungas48%
×Draw22%
Šilas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
1.90
Šilas
1.44

Babrungas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 41 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
71%
Babrungas or Šilas
78%
Draw or Šilas
52%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
27%
Šilas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
85%
Babrungas 2+ goals
56%
Babrungas 3+ goals
29%
Šilas 1+ goals
76%
Šilas 2+ goals
42%
Šilas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
62%
Šilas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Šilas attack 1.63 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Babrungas scores more
48%
level
22%
Šilas scores more
29%

Babrungas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Babrungas vs Šilas

Šilas beat Babrungas 2-1 in 1 Lyga on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.