Sigma Olomouc 2–4 Mlada Boleslav: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Mlada Boleslav

4/4/2026

Czech Liga · Round 28Andruv stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc43%

×Draw25%

Mlada Boleslav31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchMlada Boleslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Sigma Olomouc

1.50

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

Sigma Olomouc creates 22% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

1.24

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.38

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.24

Mlada Boleslav

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Mlada Boleslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

69%

Sigma Olomouc or Mlada Boleslav

75%

Draw or Mlada Boleslav

57%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

21%

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

78%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

44%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

19%

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

71%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

35%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

58%

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

43%

level

25%

Mlada Boleslav scores more

31%

Sigma Olomouc at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff