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Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
11/2/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 14Lokotrans Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Mlada Boleslav41%
×Draw25%
Sigma Olomouc34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mlada Boleslav
1.52
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

Mlada Boleslav creates 11% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.66
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.48
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw
66%
Mlada Boleslav or Sigma Olomouc
75%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
59%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
20%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
78%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
45%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
20%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
40%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
54%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.48 · 121 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.66 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more
41%
level
25%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
34%

Mlada Boleslav at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc

Sigma Olomouc beat Mlada Boleslav 4-1 in Czech Liga on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Lokotrans Arena in Mlada Boleslav.