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Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
3/16/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 26Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sigma Olomouc42%
×Draw27%
Hradec Králové32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
Hradec Králové
1.17

Sigma Olomouc creates 18% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
Hradec Králové
1.09

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
Hradec Králové
1.39

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
68%
Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové
73%
Draw or Hradec Králové
58%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
19%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
40%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
16%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
69%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
33%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
57%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Hradec Králové defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hradec Králové attack 1.09 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
42%
level
27%
Hradec Králové scores more
32%

Sigma Olomouc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové

Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 in Czech Liga on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Andrův stadion in Olomouc.