Hradec Králové 1–0 Sigma Olomouc: Result & Stats

Hradec Králové

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sigma Olomouc

8/24/2025

Czech Liga · Round 6Malsovicka arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Hradec Králové42%

×Draw26%

Sigma Olomouc32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.17

Hradec Králové

1.39

Sigma Olomouc

1.17

Hradec Králové creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

1.40

creates per match

1.26

1.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Hradec Králové

1.40

Sigma Olomouc

1.26

allows per match

Hradec Králové

1.08

Sigma Olomouc

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw

68%

Hradec Králové or Sigma Olomouc

74%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

58%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

20%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

75%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

40%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

16%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

69%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

33%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

57%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.40 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Hradec Králové defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hradec Králové scores more

42%

level

26%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

32%

Hradec Králové at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff