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Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
10/5/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 11Andruv stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc45%
×Draw25%
FK Jablonec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.52
FK Jablonec
1.18

Sigma Olomouc creates 29% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 122 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
FK Jablonec
1.11

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
FK Jablonec
1.66

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
70%
Sigma Olomouc or FK Jablonec
75%
Draw or FK Jablonec
55%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
22%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
78%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
45%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
20%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
69%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
33%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
60%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + FK Jablonec defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Jablonec attack 1.11 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
45%
level
25%
FK Jablonec scores more
30%

Sigma Olomouc at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Sigma Olomouc 2–0 FK Jablonec

Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 2-0 in Czech Liga on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Andruv stadion in Olomouc.