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FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
3/29/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 27Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FK Jablonec45%
×Draw26%
Sigma Olomouc29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.49
Sigma Olomouc
1.14

FK Jablonec creates 31% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 119 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.61
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.02
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

FK Jablonec+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
71%
FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc
74%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
55%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
22%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
77%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
44%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
19%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
68%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
32%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
61%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.61 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + FK Jablonec defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
45%
level
26%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
29%

FK Jablonec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc

FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou.