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Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice — Czech Liga 2019

Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
České Budějovice
České Budějovice
9/16/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 8Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sigma Olomouc52%
×Draw24%
České Budějovice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc
1.72
České Budějovice
1.11

Sigma Olomouc creates 55% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.38
České Budějovice
0.98

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc
1.24
České Budějovice
2.07

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par
České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

České Budějovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw
75%
Sigma Olomouc or České Budějovice
76%
Draw or České Budějovice
48%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
28%
České Budějovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
82%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
51%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
25%
České Budějovice 1+ goals
67%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
30%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
68%
České Budějovice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more
52%
level
24%
České Budějovice scores more
25%

Sigma Olomouc at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc vs České Budějovice

Sigma Olomouc beat České Budějovice 2-1 in Czech Liga on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Andrův stadion in Olomouc.