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České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
2/25/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice35%
×Draw26%
Sigma Olomouc40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.29
Sigma Olomouc
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 119 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.20
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.53
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
60%
České Budějovice or Sigma Olomouc
74%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
65%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
15%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
72%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
37%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
14%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
41%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
47%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

České Budějovice scores more
35%
level
26%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
40%

Sigma Olomouc at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: České Budějovice 2–1 Sigma Olomouc

České Budějovice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 in Czech Liga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.