Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Sigma Olomouc

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Ostrava

9/1/2024

Czech Liga · Round 7Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Sigma Olomouc40%

×Draw26%

Baník Ostrava34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma OlomoucExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Sigma Olomouc

1.38

Baník Ostrava

1.25

Sigma Olomouc creates 10% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 124 away

1.38

creates per match

1.26

1.24

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.38

Baník Ostrava

1.26

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc

1.24

Baník Ostrava

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc or draw

66%

Sigma Olomouc or Baník Ostrava

74%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

60%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

19%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

75%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

40%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

16%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

71%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

36%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

54%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.38 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Baník Ostrava attack 1.26 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sigma Olomouc scores more

40%

level

26%

Baník Ostrava scores more

34%

Sigma Olomouc at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff