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Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
2/9/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 21Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Baník Ostrava45%
×Draw25%
Sigma Olomouc30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava
1.53
Sigma Olomouc
1.20

Baník Ostrava creates 28% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 119 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava
1.69
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Baník Ostrava
1.14
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw
70%
Baník Ostrava or Sigma Olomouc
75%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
55%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
22%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
78%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
45%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
20%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
70%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
34%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
60%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.14 · 122 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.69 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more
45%
level
25%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
30%

Baník Ostrava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc

Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 in Czech Liga on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Ostrava.