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Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
8/20/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 5Svatoplukova tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sigma Olomouc U1943%
×Draw23%
Jindřichův Hradec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.78
Jindřichův Hradec
1.58

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
2.13
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc U19
1.03
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc U19 or draw
66%
Sigma Olomouc U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
77%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
57%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
23%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
83%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
53%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
26%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
79%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 2.13 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
34%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec

Sigma Olomouc U19 beat Jindřichův Hradec 3-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 20, 2024.

The match was played at Svatoplukova tráva in Olomouc.