Jindřichův Hradec 1–3 Sigma Olomouc U19

Jindřichův Hradec

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sigma Olomouc U19

4/29/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 24Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec50%

×Draw22%

Sigma Olomouc U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.37

Jindřichův Hradec

1.92

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.37

Jindřichův Hradec creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

2.36

creates per match

1.57

1.17

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.57

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

73%

Jindřichův Hradec or Sigma Olomouc U19

78%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19

50%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

28%

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

85%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

57%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

30%

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

75%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

40%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

65%

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

50%

level

22%

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

27%

Jindřichův Hradec at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff