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Sigma Olomouc II vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
CANC
09:15
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
2/21/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II43%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
1.63
Odra Petřkovice
1.38

Sigma Olomouc II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
2.17
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
0.93
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
67%
Sigma Olomouc II or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
57%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
22%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
80%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
48%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
22%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
75%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
40%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
57%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.17 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
43%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
33%

Sigma Olomouc II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sigma Olomouc II face Odra Petřkovice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Sigma Olomouc II hosting Odra Petřkovice. Match starts February 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sigma Olomouc II host Odra Petřkovice at Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.