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Odra Petřkovice vs Sigma Olomouc II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:00
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
5/27/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 34Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice31%
×Draw24%
Sigma Olomouc II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.35
Sigma Olomouc II
1.67

Sigma Olomouc II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Sigma Olomouc II
2.22

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Sigma Olomouc II
1.06

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
55%
Odra Petřkovice or Sigma Olomouc II
76%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
69%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
14%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
74%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
39%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
15%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
81%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
50%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
41%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.22 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
31%
level
24%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
45%

Sigma Olomouc II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Odra Petřkovice vs Sigma Olomouc II — Match Preview

Odra Petřkovice face Sigma Olomouc II on May 27, 2020 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Odra Petřkovice host Sigma Olomouc II at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.