Sigma Olomouc II 3–1 Chrudim: Result & Stats | FNL

Sigma Olomouc II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chrudim

5/25/2025

FNL · Round 30Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II45%

×Draw25%

Chrudim30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc IIExpected goals in this matchChrudim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Sigma Olomouc II

1.54

Chrudim

1.21

Sigma Olomouc II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

1.53

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II

1.53

Chrudim

1.13

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II

1.29

Chrudim

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Chrudim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw

70%

Sigma Olomouc II or Chrudim

75%

Draw or Chrudim

55%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+

23%

Chrudim wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals

79%

Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals

45%

Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals

20%

Chrudim 1+ goals

70%

Chrudim 2+ goals

34%

Chrudim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)

60%

Chrudim (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.53 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more

45%

level

25%

Chrudim scores more

30%

Sigma Olomouc II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff