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Chrudim vs Sigma Olomouc II — FNL 2019

Chrudim
Chrudim
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
7/20/2024FNLFNL · Round 1Stadion Za Vodojemem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chrudim47%
×Draw24%
Sigma Olomouc II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim
1.66
Sigma Olomouc II
1.23

Chrudim creates 35% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chrudim
1.54
Sigma Olomouc II
1.16

allows per match

Chrudim
1.31
Sigma Olomouc II
1.78

finishing

Chrudim+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chrudim or draw
72%
Chrudim or Sigma Olomouc II
76%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
53%

Winning margin

Chrudim wins by 2+
25%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chrudim 1+ goals
81%
Chrudim 2+ goals
49%
Chrudim 3+ goals
23%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
71%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
35%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chrudim (draw refunded)
63%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim attack 1.54 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.16 + Chrudim defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chrudim scores more
47%
level
24%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
28%

Chrudim at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chrudim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Chrudim 3–0 Sigma Olomouc II

Chrudim beat Sigma Olomouc II 3-0 in FNL on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Za Vodojemem in Chrudim.