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Siete Villas vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Siete Villas51%
×Draw24%
Ribamontán al Mar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.74
Ribamontán al Mar
1.14

Siete Villas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 28 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
75%
Siete Villas or Ribamontán al Mar
76%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
49%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
28%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
82%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
52%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
25%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
68%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
32%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
67%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Siete Villas scores more
51%
level
24%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
25%

Siete Villas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 1–3 Ribamontán al Mar

Ribamontán al Mar beat Siete Villas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.