Ribamontán al Mar 0–1 Siete Villas: Result & Stats

Ribamontán al Mar

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Siete Villas

2/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar26%

×Draw28%

Siete Villas46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ribamontán al MarExpected goals in this matchSiete Villas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.36

Ribamontán al Mar

0.95

Siete Villas

1.36

Siete Villas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

0.63

creates per match

0.99

1.73

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar

0.63

Siete Villas

0.99

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar

1.73

Siete Villas

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Siete Villas →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw

54%

Ribamontán al Mar or Siete Villas

72%

Draw or Siete Villas

74%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+

Siete Villas wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals

61%

Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals

25%

Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals

74%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

39%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)

36%

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.95

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more

26%

level

28%

Siete Villas scores more

46%

Siete Villas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribamontán al Mar vs Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Ribamontán al Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.

Ribamontán al Mar vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ribamontán al Mar vs Siete Villas