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Siete Villas vs Noja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Noja
Noja
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Siete Villas56%
×Draw23%
Noja21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.82
Noja
1.04

Siete Villas creates 75% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 32 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Noja
0.78

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Noja
2.16

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Noja+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Noja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
79%
Siete Villas or Noja
77%
Draw or Noja
44%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
32%
Noja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
84%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
54%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
27%
Noja 1+ goals
65%
Noja 2+ goals
28%
Noja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
72%
Noja (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Noja away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Noja defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.82

Noja attack 0.78 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Siete Villas scores more
56%
level
23%
Noja scores more
21%

Siete Villas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 1–0 Noja

Siete Villas beat Noja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.