Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Noja vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Noja
Noja
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja30%
×Draw27%
Siete Villas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noja
1.09
Siete Villas
1.37

Siete Villas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Noja
0.91
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Noja
1.75
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Noja+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Noja or draw
57%
Noja or Siete Villas
73%
Draw or Siete Villas
70%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+
12%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals
66%
Noja 2+ goals
30%
Noja 3+ goals
10%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
75%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
40%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)
41%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Noja scores more
30%
level
27%
Siete Villas scores more
43%

Siete Villas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noja vs Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Noja 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo La Caseta in Noja.