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Siete Villas vs Monte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Monte
Monte
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siete Villas49%
×Draw25%
Monte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.56
Monte
1.04

Siete Villas creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Monte
0.76

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Monte
1.65

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Monte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Monte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
75%
Siete Villas or Monte
75%
Draw or Monte
51%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
25%
Monte wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
79%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
46%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
21%
Monte 1+ goals
65%
Monte 2+ goals
28%
Monte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
66%
Monte (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Monte away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Monte defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Monte attack 0.76 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Siete Villas scores more
49%
level
25%
Monte scores more
25%

Siete Villas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 0–1 Monte

Monte beat Siete Villas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.