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Monte vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Monte
Monte
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
10/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo San Juan de Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monte30%
×Draw25%
Siete Villas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte
1.23
Siete Villas
1.56

Siete Villas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

Monte
1.18
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Monte
2.12
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Monte+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monte or draw
55%
Monte or Siete Villas
75%
Draw or Siete Villas
70%

Winning margin

Monte wins by 2+
13%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Monte 1+ goals
71%
Monte 2+ goals
35%
Monte 3+ goals
13%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
79%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
46%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Monte (draw refunded)
40%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte attack 1.18 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Monte defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monte scores more
30%
level
25%
Siete Villas scores more
45%

Siete Villas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Monte 0–2 Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Monte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Juan de Monte in Santander.