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Siete Villas vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Siete Villas
Siete Villas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Siete Villas28%
×Draw26%
Gimnástica Torrelavega46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siete Villas
1.12
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.50

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 34% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

Siete Villas
1.48
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Siete Villas
1.31
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw
54%
Siete Villas or Gimnástica Torrelavega
74%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
72%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+
11%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals
67%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
31%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
10%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
78%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
44%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)
38%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.12

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Siete Villas scores more
28%
level
26%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
46%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 1–3 Gimnástica Torrelavega

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Siete Villas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.