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Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio El Malecón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega65%
×Draw20%
Siete Villas14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.01
Siete Villas
0.80

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 151% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
2.76
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.61
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Torrelavega ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gimnástica Torrelavega or draw
86%
Gimnástica Torrelavega or Siete Villas
80%
Draw or Siete Villas
35%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
41%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
87%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
59%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
32%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
55%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
19%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
82%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Torrelavega at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.61 · 59 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 2.76 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.01

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
65%
level
20%
Siete Villas scores more
14%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnástica Torrelavega 3 – 1 Siete Villas

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Siete Villas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Malecón in Torrelavega.