Siete Villas 2–3 Atlético Mineros: Result & Stats

Siete Villas

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Mineros

3/30/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Campo San Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Siete Villas51%

×Draw24%

Atlético Mineros25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siete VillasExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.11

Siete Villas

1.68

Atlético Mineros

1.11

Siete Villas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

1.48

creates per match

0.91

1.31

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Siete Villas

1.48

Atlético Mineros

0.91

allows per match

Siete Villas

1.31

Atlético Mineros

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siete Villas ↓

Atlético Mineros →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Siete Villas or draw

75%

Siete Villas or Atlético Mineros

76%

Draw or Atlético Mineros

49%

Winning margin

Siete Villas wins by 2+

27%

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Siete Villas 1+ goals

81%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

50%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

67%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

30%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

67%

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siete Villas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siete Villas attack 1.48 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Siete Villas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Siete Villas scores more

51%

level

24%

Atlético Mineros scores more

25%

Siete Villas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 2–3 Atlético Mineros

Atlético Mineros beat Siete Villas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Campo San Pedro in Castillo Siete Villas.

Siete Villas vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Siete Villas 2–3 Atlético Mineros