Atlético Mineros 1–0 Siete Villas: Result & Stats

Atlético Mineros

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siete Villas

11/16/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Estadio Pepín Cadelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Mineros33%

×Draw27%

Siete Villas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MinerosExpected goals in this matchSiete Villas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.33

Atlético Mineros

1.18

Siete Villas

1.33

Siete Villas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

0.99

1.68

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Atlético Mineros

1.09

Siete Villas

0.99

allows per match

Atlético Mineros

1.68

Siete Villas

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineros ↓

Siete Villas →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Mineros or draw

60%

Atlético Mineros or Siete Villas

73%

Draw or Siete Villas

67%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

14%

Siete Villas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

12%

Siete Villas 1+ goals

74%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

38%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

45%

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineros at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineros attack 1.09 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Mineros scores more

33%

level

27%

Siete Villas scores more

40%

Siete Villas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Atlético Mineros 1–0 Siete Villas

Atlético Mineros beat Siete Villas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pepín Cadelo in Reocín.

Atlético Mineros vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Atlético Mineros 1–0 Siete Villas