Siero 1–1 San Martín: Result & Stats

Siero

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Martín

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero36%

×Draw26%

San Martín38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SieroExpected goals in this matchSan Martín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.40

Siero

1.35

San Martín

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

1.16

creates per match

1.12

1.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Siero

1.16

San Martín

1.12

allows per match

Siero

1.68

San Martín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siero+0.00on par

San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

San Martín →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Siero or draw

62%

Siero or San Martín

74%

Draw or San Martín

64%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+

16%

San Martín wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals

74%

Siero 2+ goals

39%

Siero 3+ goals

15%

San Martín 1+ goals

75%

San Martín 2+ goals

41%

San Martín 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)

48%

San Martín (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Martín attack 1.12 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Siero scores more

36%

level

26%

San Martín scores more

38%

San Martín at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff