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San Martín vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Siero
Siero
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Martín46%
×Draw29%
Siero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.27
Siero
0.85

San Martín creates 49% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Siero
0.74

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Siero
1.46

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Siero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
75%
San Martín or Siero
71%
Draw or Siero
54%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
21%
Siero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
72%
San Martín 2+ goals
36%
San Martín 3+ goals
14%
Siero 1+ goals
57%
Siero 2+ goals
21%
Siero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
65%
Siero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Siero attack 0.74 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Martín scores more
46%
level
29%
Siero scores more
25%

San Martín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 2–0 Siero

San Martín beat Siero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.