Siero 0–1 Colunga: Result & Stats

Siero

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colunga

Zucu 36'

12/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio El Bayu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siero34%

×Draw26%

Colunga39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SieroExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.36

Siero

1.25

Colunga

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 113 away

1.16

creates per match

1.04

1.68

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Siero

1.16

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Siero

1.68

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siero+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siero ↓

Colunga →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Siero or draw

61%

Siero or Colunga

74%

Draw or Colunga

66%

Winning margin

Siero wins by 2+

15%

Colunga wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Siero 1+ goals

71%

Siero 2+ goals

36%

Siero 3+ goals

13%

Colunga 1+ goals

74%

Colunga 2+ goals

39%

Colunga 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Siero (draw refunded)

47%

Colunga (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siero at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siero attack 1.16 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Colunga attack 1.04 + Siero defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Siero scores more

34%

level

26%

Colunga scores more

39%

Colunga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Zucu

58'

Edu Llosa← Nelson Cano

58'

Antonio Pellitero← Pablo Menendez

64'

Jorge Vázquez← Antonio García

66'

Raúl Carballo← Alvaro Moreno

66'

Kim Taehun← Josín

75'

Pelayo Salas← Juan Fernandez

78'

Julen Escudero← Zucu

89'

Adrián Menéndez← Pablo Martínez

89'

José Fanjul← René Montoto

Siero

Colunga

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jose Egüen

58'▲Edu Llosa←▼Nelson Cano

58'▲Antonio Pellitero←▼Pablo Menendez

64'▲Jorge Vázquez←▼Antonio García

75'▲Pelayo Salas←▼Juan Fernandez

Siero substitutes

LlosaPelliteroVázquezSalas

Manager: Jano

66'▲Raúl Carballo←▼Alvaro Moreno

66'▲Kim Taehun←▼Josín

78'▲Julen Escudero←▼Zucu

89'▲Adrián Menéndez←▼Pablo Martínez

89'▲José Fanjul←▼René Montoto

Colunga substitutes

CarballoTaehunEscuderoMenéndezFanjul

Siero 0 – 1 Colunga

Colunga beat Siero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 8, 2020.

Goals: Zucu (36').

The match was played at Estadio El Bayu in Pola de Siero.

Siero vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Siero 0 – 1 Colunga