Colunga 1–0 Siero: Result & Stats

Colunga

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siero

Kevin Castro 83'

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Colunga44%

×Draw28%

Siero28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchSiero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Colunga

1.32

Siero

1.00

Colunga creates 32% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 46 away

1.19

creates per match

0.74

1.27

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Siero

0.74

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Siero

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Siero →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

72%

Colunga or Siero

72%

Draw or Siero

56%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

20%

Siero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

73%

Colunga 2+ goals

38%

Colunga 3+ goals

15%

Siero 1+ goals

63%

Siero 2+ goals

26%

Siero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

61%

Siero (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Siero attack 0.74 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colunga scores more

44%

level

28%

Siero scores more

28%

Colunga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Edu Llosa← Guille Cavia

59'

Alvaro Moreno← Pablo Ablanedo

66'

René Montoto← Eric Santín

66'

Josín← Raúl Carballo

72'

Marcos Cifuentes← Nelson Cano

83'

Kevin Castro

84'

Pelayo Salas← Ivan De la Ballina

85'

Adrián Menéndez← Zucu

85'

Pablo Iglesias← Kevin Castro

Colunga

Siero

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jano

59'▲Alvaro Moreno←▼Pablo Ablanedo

66'▲René Montoto←▼Eric Santín

66'▲Josín←▼Raúl Carballo

85'▲Adrián Menéndez←▼Zucu

85'▲Pablo Iglesias←▼Kevin Castro

Colunga substitutes

MorenoMontotoJosínMenéndezIglesias

Manager: Jose Egüen

24'▲Edu Llosa←▼Guille Cavia

72'▲Marcos Cifuentes←▼Nelson Cano

84'▲Pelayo Salas←▼Ivan De la Ballina

Siero substitutes

LlosaCifuentesSalas

Colunga 1 – 0 Siero

Colunga beat Siero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 31, 2021.

Goals: Kevin Castro (83').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Colunga 1 – 0 Siero