Siegburger SV 2–3 Germania Teveren: Result & Stats

Siegburger SV

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Germania Teveren

5/5/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Siegburger SV62%

×Draw17%

Germania Teveren21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siegburger SVExpected goals in this matchGermania Teveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.58

Siegburger SV

2.78

Germania Teveren

1.58

Siegburger SV creates 76% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

1.89

creates per match

1.67

1.49

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Siegburger SV

1.89

Germania Teveren

1.67

allows per match

Siegburger SV

1.49

Germania Teveren

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Germania Teveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw

79%

Siegburger SV or Germania Teveren

83%

Draw or Germania Teveren

38%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

42%

Germania Teveren wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

94%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

76%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

51%

Germania Teveren 1+ goals

79%

Germania Teveren 2+ goals

47%

Germania Teveren 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

75%

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Germania Teveren away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Germania Teveren defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.78

Germania Teveren attack 1.67 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Siegburger SV scores more

62%

level

17%

Germania Teveren scores more

21%

Siegburger SV at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff