Germania Teveren 1–3 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

Germania Teveren

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Siegburger SV

11/5/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren22%

×Draw21%

Siegburger SV57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania TeverenExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.10

Germania Teveren

1.25

Siegburger SV

2.10

Siegburger SV creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

0.93

creates per match

1.86

2.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Germania Teveren

0.93

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

Germania Teveren

2.33

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw

43%

Germania Teveren or Siegburger SV

79%

Draw or Siegburger SV

78%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+

9%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals

71%

Germania Teveren 2+ goals

36%

Germania Teveren 3+ goals

13%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

88%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

62%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)

28%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Germania Teveren scores more

22%

level

21%

Siegburger SV scores more

57%

Siegburger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff