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Siegburger SV vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
4/1/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 24Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Siegburger SV42%
×Draw23%
Freialdenhoven35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
1.78
Freialdenhoven
1.62

Siegburger SV creates 10% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 51 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
65%
Siegburger SV or Freialdenhoven
77%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
58%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
22%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
83%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
53%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
26%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
80%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
48%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
54%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
42%
level
23%
Freialdenhoven scores more
35%

Siegburger SV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siegburger SV vs Freialdenhoven

Siegburger SV beat Freialdenhoven 4-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Walter-Mundorf-Stadion in Siegburg.