Freialdenhoven 2–1 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

Freialdenhoven

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Siegburger SV

4/15/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Freialdenhoven34%

×Draw23%

Siegburger SV43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.72

Freialdenhoven

1.51

Siegburger SV

1.72

Siegburger SV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 80 away

1.45

creates per match

1.86

1.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

57%

Freialdenhoven or Siegburger SV

77%

Draw or Siegburger SV

66%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

16%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

78%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

44%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

19%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

82%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

51%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

44%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

34%

level

23%

Siegburger SV scores more

43%

Siegburger SV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff