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Siegburger SV vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
5/3/2026Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 25Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Siegburger SV46%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Köln II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
1.89
Fortuna Köln II
1.52

Siegburger SV creates 24% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
69%
Siegburger SV or Fortuna Köln II
78%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
54%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
26%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
85%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
56%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
29%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
60%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.89

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
46%
level
22%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
31%

Siegburger SV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siegburger SV vs Fortuna Köln II

Siegburger SV beat Fortuna Köln II 4-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Walter-Mundorf-Stadion in Siegburg.