Fortuna Köln II 1–4 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

Fortuna Köln II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Siegburger SV

3/30/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Fortuna Köln II40%

×Draw22%

Siegburger SV38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln IIExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.72

Fortuna Köln II

1.77

Siegburger SV

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

1.96

creates per match

1.86

1.58

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.96

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.58

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw

62%

Fortuna Köln II or Siegburger SV

78%

Draw or Siegburger SV

60%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+

21%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals

53%

Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals

26%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

82%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

51%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)

51%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more

40%

level

22%

Siegburger SV scores more

38%

Fortuna Köln II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff