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Siegburger SV vs Eilendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
CANC
13:15
Eilendorf
Eilendorf
5/30/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 31Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Siegburger SV57%
×Draw21%
Eilendorf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
2.04
Eilendorf
1.20

Siegburger SV creates 70% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 20 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
Eilendorf
0.90

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
Eilendorf
2.20

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

Eilendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
78%
Siegburger SV or Eilendorf
79%
Draw or Eilendorf
43%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
34%
Eilendorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
87%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
60%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
33%
Eilendorf 1+ goals
70%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
34%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
72%
Eilendorf (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
57%
level
21%
Eilendorf scores more
22%

Siegburger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Siegburger SV vs Eilendorf — Match Preview

Siegburger SV face Eilendorf on May 30, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Siegburger SV host Eilendorf at Kunstrasenplatz Sportplatz Siegburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.