Eilendorf 2–1 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

Eilendorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Siegburger SV

4/24/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27Kunstrasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eilendorf30%

×Draw23%

Siegburger SV47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EilendorfExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.78

Eilendorf

1.39

Siegburger SV

1.78

Siegburger SV creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 80 away

1.20

creates per match

1.86

1.70

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Eilendorf

1.20

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

Eilendorf

1.70

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw

53%

Eilendorf or Siegburger SV

77%

Draw or Siegburger SV

70%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+

13%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals

75%

Eilendorf 2+ goals

40%

Eilendorf 3+ goals

16%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

83%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

53%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)

39%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eilendorf scores more

30%

level

23%

Siegburger SV scores more

47%

Siegburger SV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff