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Siegburger SV vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
CANC
14:00
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
3/17/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Walter-Mundorf-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Siegburger SV48%
×Draw22%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siegburger SV
1.94
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

Siegburger SV creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 44 away

creates per match

Siegburger SV
1.89
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Siegburger SV
1.49
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Siegburger SV+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siegburger SV ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Siegburger SV or draw
70%
Siegburger SV or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
78%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
52%

Winning margin

Siegburger SV wins by 2+
27%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Siegburger SV 1+ goals
86%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
58%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
30%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
78%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
44%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
61%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siegburger SV at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siegburger SV attack 1.89 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Siegburger SV defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Siegburger SV scores more
48%
level
22%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
30%

Siegburger SV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Siegburger SV face BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Siegburger SV hosting BCV Glesch / Paffendorf. Match starts March 17, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Siegburger SV host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at Walter-Mundorf-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.