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BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Siegburger SV — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
9/24/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf30%
×Draw22%
Siegburger SV48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.48
Siegburger SV
1.91

Siegburger SV creates 29% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 80 away

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.40
Siegburger SV
1.86

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.95
Siegburger SV
1.57

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par
Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Siegburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw
52%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Siegburger SV
78%
Draw or Siegburger SV
70%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
14%
Siegburger SV wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
77%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
43%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
19%
Siegburger SV 1+ goals
85%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
57%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
39%
Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
30%
level
22%
Siegburger SV scores more
48%

Siegburger SV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 0 – 0 Siegburger SV

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf and Siegburger SV drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch in Bergheim.