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Sidi Kacem vs Maghreb Fès — Botola 2 2025

Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
FT
2 – 2
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
8/26/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 27Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sidi Kacem38%
×Draw28%
Maghreb Fès34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidi Kacem
1.18
Maghreb Fès
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sidi Kacem
1.23
Maghreb Fès
1.03

allows per match

Sidi Kacem
1.20
Maghreb Fès
1.13

finishing

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidi Kacem ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sidi Kacem or draw
66%
Sidi Kacem or Maghreb Fès
72%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
62%

Winning margin

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
16%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
69%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
33%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
12%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
67%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
30%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
52%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidi Kacem at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidi Kacem attack 1.23 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Maghreb Fès attack 1.03 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sidi Kacem scores more
38%
level
28%
Maghreb Fès scores more
34%

Sidi Kacem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sidi Kacem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Sidi Kacem 2–2 Maghreb Fès

Sidi Kacem and Maghreb Fès drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on August 26, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri in Mechra Bel Ksiri.