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Maghreb Fès vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
2 – 1
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
12/14/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Maghreb Fès54%
×Draw27%
Sidi Kacem20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.47
Sidi Kacem
0.78

Maghreb Fès creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.60
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.70
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
80%
Maghreb Fès or Sidi Kacem
73%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
46%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
27%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
77%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
43%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
18%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
54%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
18%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
73%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.60 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
54%
level
27%
Sidi Kacem scores more
20%

Maghreb Fès at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Maghreb Fès 2–1 Sidi Kacem

Maghreb Fès beat Sidi Kacem 2-1 in Botola 2 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.